Return of the Stock Picker

  • The end of QE and financial repression will create dispersion among stocks
  • Late stage of the business cycle means investors need to find companies with good business models.

How Much Time Do We Have Before The Next Crisis?

  • The yield curve dictates the US economic cycle and is the number one influencer of bear markets.
  • At late stages of the cycle the yield curve collapses.
  • The question is will there be QE before the next crisis given the divisiveness in US politics.

Confidence In The Establishment Eroding

  • Confidence in the global establishment is waning very quickly.
  • Stay away from public assets in the long term as the rug is ripped out from under the elites.
  • Money has to go somewhere and it will provide a bid for private assets (IG Bonds, Equities, Gold, and Real Estate).

T.I.N.A (There Is No Alternative)

  • There have been 666 central bank interest rate cuts and now many bonds around the world have negative yield.
  • The stock market broke out of its two year trading range as more money moves into risk assets because of T.I.N.A.
  • Gold is still early on in its bull market compared to historical runs.

The Absurd Concept of Negative Interest Rates

  • Central Bankers are willfully ignoring signs that negative interest rates are not working
  • As yields fall to the floor people have to save more
  • Bank stocks loathe negative rates and are actively looking for other options
  • Negative rates will bring on a banking crisis