None and Done

  • Fed didn’t hike and lowered expectations…this is not a good thing
  • Massive liquidity provided by central banks MUST be removed before inflation starts to run
  • Flip Flopping on policy is a confidence killer in the Fed as an institution

Trouble….

  • China devaluation changes everything
  • Looking at sovereign defaults in emerging markets
  • Remain conservative and remain liquid
  • Unclear if weakness in emerging markets short circuit the US economic recovery

2015 Mid-Year Update

Where is oil going?

Fear US dollar strength